Analyzing 75 years of market history to separate short-term volatility from long-term wealth.
If you have followed the news over the last few years, you’ve likely seen a constant stream of headlines regarding mortgage rates, inflation, and housing affordability. For many prospective investors, this "noise" creates a sense of hesitation. It’s natural to wonder: Is now the right time to buy, or should I wait for a correction?
However, in the world of real estate investing, "zooming out" is often the most effective way to gain clarity. When we move past the last 24 months and look at the last 75 years of US home price trends, a much more consistent and compelling story emerges.
The chart below tracks the annual price returns of the U.S. housing market from 1950 through 2024, with forecasts moving into 2025, based on the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index.
This data serves as a powerful reminder of the historical resilience of residential real estate. Here is what seven decades of data suggest about the nature of this asset class.
One of the most striking takeaways from this 75-year period is the sheer frequency of growth. Out of the years listed, the U.S. housing market has ended the year with positive gains roughly 89% of the time.
While many compare real estate vs the stock market, historical housing data shows a much steadier trajectory. For the vast majority of modern history, home prices haven't just fluctuated; they have compounded. Even years with modest growth—like the 1% to 2% gains seen in the 1950s—show the immense power of compound interest for those who held their assets over decades.
Investors often fear a "market crash," yet the data indicates that significant downturns are the exception, not the rule.
Aside from the structural collapse of the Great Financial Crisis (2007–2011), most "red" years in the housing market have been shallow and short-lived. For example, the minor dip in 1990 (-0.7%) was followed by a decade of consistent appreciation. Historically, the U.S. housing market has shown a remarkable ability to rebound from economic shocks. This resilience is why many investors prioritize understanding the macroeconomic trends in real estate rather than reacting to short-term volatility.
A common strategy for many is "waiting for the perfect moment" to enter the market. However, the Case-Shiller index history suggests that long-term investing has historically been a more reliable wealth-builder than "timing the market."
Missing out on just a few "green" years while waiting for a dip can be more costly than many realize, especially when you consider how real estate can be a hedge against inflation. Because real estate is a compounding asset, even the modest growth forecasted for 2025 represents a gain on top of the record-high prices of the previous years.
Short-term market conditions—like the current interest rate environment—will always shift. But for those looking at real estate as a long-term growth strategy, the 75-year trend has been overwhelmingly consistent.
The data suggests that real estate rewards patience and participation. By focusing on long-term trends rather than short-term headlines, investors can better position themselves to build lasting equity.
Interested in building your own real estate portfolio without the hassle of property management? Learn how it works at Realbricks. We provide access to fractional real estate investment opportunities, allowing you to participate in the historical growth of the housing market with ease.
This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any securities. Real estate investments involve a high degree of risk and may result in the loss of some or all of your investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Market data provided is sourced from the Case-Shiller Index and other third-party reports believed to be reliable, but its accuracy and future projections are not guaranteed. Please consult with a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
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